Mercury Quarterly Operational Update
Three months ended 30 June 2025
>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
FY25 Hydro Generation
3,410 GWh
4th lowest generation from Waikato scheme since 1980
Mean Hydrology Increases
Increases to 4,140 GWh from FY26
Uplift from Digital River and Karāpiro Rehabilitation
Karāpiro Hydro Rehab Project Concluding
Third unit at Karāpiro anticipated to be completed in September 2025
>> COMMENTARY
Market summary
National hydrological inflows of 62nd percentile during the quarter contributed to lower spot electricity prices averaging $216/MWh in Auckland. Forward electricity prices have eased to $179/MWh in Auckland for financial years 2026 to 2027 as of 30th June 2025.
FY25 hydro generation the 4th lowest from the Waikato scheme since 1980
Total generation for FY25 was 7,906GWh (874GWh, 11% lower than PCP). This primarily reflects lower hydro generation of 3,410GWh (686GWh, 17% lower than PCP) driven by 12th percentile Waikato catchment inflows and a lower than average Lake Taupō starting level. Lower wind generation of 1,936GWh (125GWh, 6% lower than PCP) from lower wind speeds and lower geothermal generation of 2,559GWh (63GWh, 2% lower than PCP) from planned outages contributed to the lower FY25 total generation.
For the quarter, a low Lake Taupō level and dry conditions to start the period contributed to lower hydro generation of 864GWh (155GWh, 15% lower than PCP). High hydro inflows at the end of the quarter increased Waikato catchment inflows to 79th percentile for the period, providing a healthy hydro storage leading into FY26.
Increasing mean hydro generation from Digital River and Karāpiro Rehabilitation
Looking ahead, Mercury's average annual hydro generation has increased 62GWh to 4,140GWh per annum. The uplift in the mean hydro expectations is driven by the Karāpiro Rehabilitation Project and the Digital River, Mercury's AI-powered decision platform and digital twin. The Digital River optimises hydro operations by simulating complex hydrology scenarios for value and has already contributed to record high hydro efficiency in FY25.
Karāpiro project concluding with third unit
Mercury is anticipating the completion of the full replacement of the third generating unit at Karāpiro hydro station in Sep-25, concluding the three-year programme of work at the site. The full replacement of the three units at Karāpiro increases hydro capacity by 16.5MW, resulting in 32GWh of additional generation assuming average inflows.
>> OPERATING STATISTICS
OPERATING INFORMATION
Three months ended 30 June 2025 | Three months ended 30 June 2024 | Twelve months ended 30 June 2025 | Twelve months ended 30 June 2024 | |||||
CONNECTION NUMBERS ('000s) | ||||||||
Electricity connections (ICPs) | 578 | 576 | ||||||
Gas connections | 110 | 104 | ||||||
Telecommunication connections | 178 | 160 | ||||||
Mobile connections | 37 | 24 | ||||||
Customers with 2 or more products | 215 | 191 | ||||||
VWAP ($/MWh) | Volume (GWh) | VWAP ($/MWh) | Volume (GWh) | VWAP ($/MWh) | Volume (GWh) | VWAP ($/MWh) | Volume (GWh) | |
ELECTRICITY SALES | ||||||||
Physical | 166.80 | 1,632 | 164.72 | 1,710 | 163.53 | 6,340 | 153.55 | 6,669 |
Mass Market | 160.01 | 1,109 | 168.05 | 1,175 | 168.73 | 4,281 | 162.80 | 4,461 |
Commercial & Industrial | 181.21 | 523 | 157.41 | 535 | 152.71 | 2,059 | 135.28 | 2,208 |
Network Losses | 93 | 97 | 365 | 369 | ||||
Physical Purchases | 215.83 | 1,726 | 275.02 | 1,807 | 211.24 | 6,705 | 189.55 | 7,037 |
Financial | 150.65 | 707 | 154.63 | 798 | 147.42 | 3,024 | 137.53 | 3,247 |
End User CfDs | 128.17 | 363 | 133.85 | 278 | 129.48 | 1,281 | 122.80 | 1,147 |
Other Sell CfDs | 174.34 | 344 | 165.76 | 520 | 160.62 | 1,742 | 145.58 | 2,100 |
Spot Settlement of CfDs | 206.20 | 259.02 | 196.38 | 181.03 | ||||
Spot Customer Purchases | 222.12 | 266.41 | 191.76 | 182.81 | ||||
Gas Sales ($/GJ, TJ) | 35.58 | 561 | 23.04 | 612 | 31.14 | 2,225 | 23.95 | 2,310 |
Gas Purchases ($/GJ,TJ) | 17.90 | 561 | 24.66 | 618 | 21.27 | 2,242 | 16.27 | 2,325 |
Telco Sales ($/month/connection) | 77.56 | 81.74 | 79.69 | 84.95 | ||||
Telco Costs ($/month/connection) | 55.15 | 56.27 | 55.77 | 58.10 | ||||
ELECTRICITY GENERATION | ||||||||
Physical | 183.41 | 1,999 | 237.70 | 2,105 | 177.82 | 7,906 | 164.64 | 8,780 |
Hydro | 207.96 | 864 | 274.71 | 1,019 | 211.93 | 3,410 | 190.68 | 4,096 |
Geothermal (consolidated) | 196.15 | 656 | 244.56 | 650 | 184.24 | 2,559 | 172.38 | 2,622 |
Wind Spot | 178.37 | 175 | 225.24 | 168 | 161.06 | 718 | 149.57 | 855 |
Wind PPA | 89.32 | 305 | 84.71 | 268 | 78.72 | 1,218 | 70.20 | 1,207 |
Financial | 159.53 | 754 | 122.81 | 799 | 133.66 | 2,893 | 112.67 | 3,073 |
Buy CfDs | 159.53 | 754 | 122.81 | 799 | 133.66 | 2,893 | 112.67 | 3,073 |
Spot Settlement of CfDs | 213.18 | 265.72 | 211.51 | 181.13 | ||||
Net Position | 15 | 31 | -149 | 362 |
Notes:
- Includes LPG bottle connections
- Includes mobile
- VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees
- Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers
- Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers
- Excludes spot customer purchases
- Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 37 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 June 2025 and 75 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 June 2024 and of 225 GWh for the 12 months ended 30 June 2025 and 376 GWh for the 12 months ended 30 June 2024. Also includes the Manawa CFD volumes relating to the Trustpower retail transaction since May 2022
- Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation
- Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases and wind ppa
>> MARKET DATA
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE
Financial Year Q4 2025
Mercury: 28%, Meridian Energy: 19%, Contact Energy: 17%, Genesis Energy: 14%, Manawa Energy: 2%, Other: 17%
Financial Year Q4 2024
Mercury: 20%, Meridian Energy: 30%, Contact Energy: 19%, Genesis Energy: 11%, Manawa Energy: 3%, Other: 17%
Source: Transpower SCADA
SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE (EXCLUDING CFDs)
Financial Year Q4 2025
Mercury: 82%, Other: 18%
Financial Year Q4 2024
Mercury: 82%, Other: 18%
Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA
OTA HUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Chart Description: Line graph showing Average National Storage (GWh), FY2025 National Storage (GWh), Average Monthly OTA Spot Price ($/MWh), FY2024 National Storage (GWh), and Rolling 12 Month Average OTA Spot Price ($/MWh) from July to June.
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)
TAUPO STORAGE
Chart Description: Line graph showing Taupō Storage (GWh) for Average Since 1999, FY2024, and FY2025 from July to June.
Source: NZX Hydro
OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Chart Description: Bar chart showing Otahuhu ASX Futures Settlement Price ($/MWh) for Financial Years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with data points for As at 30/09/2024, As at 31/12/2024, As at 31/03/2025, and As at 30/06/2025.
Source: ASX
BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Chart Description: Bar chart showing Benmore ASX Futures Settlement Price ($/MWh) for Financial Years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with data points for As at 30/09/2024, As at 31/12/2024, As at 31/03/2025, and As at 30/06/2025.
Source: ASX
NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Chart Description: Bar chart showing National Consumption (GWh) and Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter Consumption (GWh) for Q4 2020 through Q4 2025.
Source: Transpower Information Exchange
AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY (°C)
FINANCIAL YEAR | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
2025 | 12.5 | 17.1 | 19.7 | 15.3 |
2024 | 12.2 | 16.8 | 19.6 | 14.3 |
2023 | 12.9 | 17.2 | 19.2 | 15.1 |
2022 | 12.2 | 17.8 | 20.8 | 15.1 |
2021 | 12.3 | 16.9 | 19.5 | 14.8 |
Historical Average (since 1999) | 12 | 16.2 | 19.5 | 14.2 |
Source: Met Service
MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)
Chart Description: Dual-axis line graph showing NZ Market Churn (LHS, ICPs) and Annual NZ Market Churn % (RHS) from July 2021 to the present.
Source: Electricity Authority